How can we improve elite sampling for qualitative and survey interviews? Elite interviewing remains a vital methodology for understanding political dynamics to access specialized populations and hidden networks, yet suffers from sampling biases that undermine the validity of research that aims for generalizability. This paper identifies three systematic distortions in elite research: hidden biases emerging from elites' strategic calculations about granting access, detectable biases stemming from researchers' positionality and perceived ideology, and network topology problems creating structural blindness to certain elite subgroups. We introduce a novel network-based probabilistic sampling protocol designed to counteract these biases by combining network mapping, community detection algorithms, and probability-based selection procedures. Unlike traditional referral-based approaches that inadvertently reproduce existing power dynamics, our methodology provides researchers with a systematic means to identify and access previously invisible segments of elite networks. We validate this approach using a comprehensive dataset of 15,940 elite actors in Tunisia, demonstrating how it successfully overcomes the limitations of conventional sampling methods. This contribution advances both theoretical understanding of sampling biases in elite contexts and provides practical methodological tools for producing more representative research.

Presented at: Emerging Methodologists Workshop
Early version published in QMMR (Fall'25 issue)

This paper introduces a novel theory of gendered informational inequality in elite networks, examining how women are persistently disadvantaged in informal power structures despite formal progress in gender equality. The analysis of over 13,000 Tunisian elites reveals that women consistently occupy less central positions in elite information networks, potentially limiting their access to critical information and ability to act as information brokers. This finding underscores the severity of women’s exclusion – being a Tunisian woman in these elite circles is akin to being an outsider in one’s own political system. In theoretical terms, formal citizenship and inclusion have not overcome the informal network barriers. Recognizing information as a critical resource for power and decision-making, I hypothesize that women in elite circles face structural disadvantages in accessing quality information, despite their formal inclusion. I employ betweenness centrality to capture information access by quantifying individuals' bridging roles within the network. I argue that gendered exclusionary social microdynamics persist despite a gender regime change in formal representation.

Presented at: APSA, APSA MENA Workshop, POMEPS Workshop

Political elites routinely attempt to mobilize mass attitudes through strategic messaging, yet we know surprisingly little about the conditions under which these efforts prove ineffective. This paper examines a case of elite messaging failure following the 2013 assassination of opposition leader Chokri Belaid in Tunisia. Despite a sustained campaign by opposition elites to blame the ruling Islamist party (Ennahda) for the violence, with media coverage increasingly associating Ennahda with assassination and political violence, public trust in Ennahda-controlled institutions (parliament, cabinet, police) actually increased rather than decreased. Using an Unexpected Event During Survey design and systematic analysis of media content, I demonstrate that elite informational cues failed to achieve their intended mobilization effect. The findings reveal important scope conditions for elite influence in new democracies: when crises trigger psychological needs for stability, mass responses can override elite messaging, rendering even coordinated political campaigns ineffective. This challenges theories that assume elite cues reliably shape mass opinion and contributes to our understanding of democratic accountability mechanisms in fragile institutional contexts.

Presented at: MPSA, APSA Virtual Research Meeting, Just Research, Violence Instability and Peace Workshop

Major geopolitical events may reshape public attention to intellectuals, but causal evidence remains scarce. Exploiting the October 7, 2023 attacks on Israel as a nat- ural experiment, I use regression discontinuity design with Google Trends data for 65 public intellectuals to estimate crisis effects on intellectual attention. I find large, immediate increases (15-60+ points) in searches for thinkers addressing colonialism, violence, and Israel-Palestine. Effects appear for both deceased (Fanon, Said) and living intellectuals (Papp´e, Khalidi), contradicting platform-based theories. However, sustained attention concentrates asymmetrically: 60% of those with lasting effects are pro-Palestinian/critical voices, while canonical left intellectuals (Said, Chomsky) return to baseline. These patterns suggest crises activate selective intellectual retrieval based on topical relevance, with sustained incorporation depending on specialized rather than general frameworks.

How do elite origins affect foreign policy views? Traditional accounts of elite opinion often assume a consensus on foreign policy matters, especially among those with similar socioeconomic backgrounds. However, this assumption overlooks potential variations based on different pathways to elite status. In Kuwait, this presents a puzzle: do all elites share similar views on international actors regardless of how they achieved their status? Using the Arab Barometer survey data, matching techniques, and a natural experiment around Kuwait's Liberation Day, I examine how different elite groups perceive foreign leaders. The results challenge conventional wisdom. Contrary to expectations of elite unity, I find a significant divide: individuals who gained elite status through education and wealth hold foreign policy views more supportive of counter-hegemonic actors such as Xi Jinping, Ali Khamenei, Bashar al-Assad, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Vladimir Putin than the established "rooted elites" of the capital. They do, however, hold a consistent view of Joe Biden's foreign policy.

How do symbolic interactions between former colonies and colonial powers affect public attitudes? Despite extensive research on contact theory in social psychology, we know remarkably little about its applicability in post-colonial contexts where historical power asymmetries persist. This knowledge gap is particularly concerning given the proliferation of Sports for Development and Peace (SDP)—a global industry investing in sports-based interventions aimed at improving intergroup relations and social cohesion. These programs operate assuming that sporting events facilitate positive contact between groups, yet rarely implement the conditions theorized as necessary for prejudice reduction: equal status, cooperation toward common goals, and institutional support. This paper bridges social psychology and international relations by examining how a high-stakes soccer match between France and Algeria—a visible moment of post-colonial interaction—influences Algerians’ attitudes toward French people and France as a nation. Using a quasi-experimental design leveraging survey data collected before and after an unexpected French victory, I find that the match’s outcome significantly decreased Arab Algerian men’s favorability toward French people while having no effect on their views of France as a country or economic cooperation. Importantly, these effects were absent among Amazigh men, suggesting that domestic ethnic identities mediate responses to symbolic post-colonial interactions. The results challenge traditional contact theory and prevailing SDP practices by showing how competitive symbolic encounters can reinforce rather than reduce outgroup prejudice in post-colonial settings, particularly among groups most strongly identified with the post-colonial national project. These findings advance our understanding of how colonial legacies continue to shape contemporary international relations and suggest that sports-based interventions may have unintended consequences when theoretical conditions for positive contact are not systematically implemented in post-colonial contexts.

Presented at : MPSA, APSA Virtual Research Meeting

Do Muslims really behave according to religious norms? This study examines whether Islamic religious norms affect Muslims' private actions when social enforcement mechanisms are absent. While extensive research has explored religion's impact on public behavior, little is known about its influence in private domains. To address this gap, I analyze Google Trends data on searches for pornographic content—a behavior prohibited in Islam—across 43 countries with significant Muslim populations during Ramadan and on Fridays, periods of heightened religious exposure. Results challenge the "Divine Rewards Hypothesis," which suggests that belief in metaphysical surveillance and afterlife rewards should enforce religious norms regardless of social context. I find that Friday prayers do not reduce pornography searches and, in some Middle Eastern countries, searches actually increase on Fridays. During Ramadan, searches initially decrease but gradually return to pre-Ramadan levels, with a spike during Eid celebrations. Additionally, I find no correlation between voting for Islamist parties and reduced pornography consumption, suggesting religious political identity does not translate to private norm adherence. These findings indicate that religious norms have limited effectiveness in private settings without social enforcement mechanisms, questioning assumptions about the invariance of religiously-motivated behavior.

Presented at: MPSA, Syracuse MENA Politics Workshop

How can researchers estimate the reliability of death toll estimates in ethnicized armed conflicts targeting minority populations? This article offers three key contributions to addressing this critical methodological challenge. Methodologically, the study develops a novel approach to estimating deaths in marginal conflict zones, leveraging synthetic control and counterfactual methods to estimate the death toll against ethnic minorities when historical accounts are contested.  Substantively, the article resolves historiographical debates about Jewish Tunisian casualties during the Nazi occupation (1942-1943). Existing accounts oscillate between minimalist claims of 100 deaths in labor camps and maximalist estimates of 2,500, mainly attributed to the Allies' bombing campaign. The analysis reveals a death toll exceeding 1,000, challenging both extreme interpretations and providing the most comprehensive demographic reconstruction of this understudied historical episode to date. Finally, the paper invites critical reconsideration of conflict measurement practices.

Presented at : APSA Virtual Research Meeting

Do pacted transitions produce more durable democracies? While existing theory emphasizes how negotiated settlements facilitate initial democratic transitions, less is known about whether these advantages persist over time. I examine 45 democratic transitions from 1974 to 2021 using survival analysis to assess long-term regime durability. The results show that pacted transitions exhibit substantially longer survival times than non-pacted cases: median survival exceeds 42 years for pacted regimes compared to 29 years for non-pacted ones (log-rank χ2 = 24.0, p < 0.001). Pacted transitions reduce the hazard of democratic failure by 89% (HR = 0.106, p < 0.001), and this effect remains robust across multiple specifications controlling for organizational capacity, economic development, and civil society strength. These findings extend democratization theory by demonstrating that the institutional and organizational ad- vantages created during negotiated transitions continue to protect democratic regimes decades after the initial transition.